USDA's 2026 June Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports were remarkably unexciting. The wheat market stole much of the thunder, with some mildly bullish acreage and stocks metrics. Corn and soybeans estimates were only modestly different from pre-report expectations.
Here is a look at the numbers from Tuesday's reports.
ACREAGE
Corn: With the Dow Jones survey estimate just shy of 95 million acres, the actual number was slightly higher at 95.3 million. That would be down 3.5 million acres from last year's 98.8 million. The acreage is the fifth largest on record. Harvested acres were pegged at 87.4 million and down 4% from last year. Acres were unchanged in 40 of 48 states.
Soybeans: With traders looking for an acreage number of 85.37 million, USDA came out at 85.4 million -- a neutral number. That is 5% higher than a year ago, with 23 of the 29 states either unchanged or higher.
Wheat: All-wheat acreage was pegged at 43.8 million in the Dow Jones pre-report survey. However, USDA's actual acreage estimate, at just 42.7 million, was a hefty 1.1 million below expectations and deemed to be the lowest wheat acreage on record. The report was certainly bullish for an oversold and downtrodden wheat futures market.
JUNE 1 QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS
Corn: With traders looking for a stocks number of just shy of 5.4 billion bushels (bb), the actual number came out at 5.29 bb. Still a very large number, it would be considered neutral to slightly bullish for corn prices. The stocks were up 14% from 2025 and implied a March-May disappearance of 3.74 bb compared to 3.5 bb the year before. On-farm stocks were 2.96 bb with off-farm stocks at 2.34 bb.
Soybeans: Dow Jones' pre-report survey had expected an average estimate of 1.051 bb for June 1 stocks. USDA came out slightly higher at 1.06 bb and 5% higher than a year ago. On-farm stocks were 367 million bushels (mb), and off farm were 694 mb. The March-May disappearance was estimated at 1.06 bb -- 18% higher than a year ago.
Wheat: The average estimate for June 1 wheat stocks was 935 mb. USDA came out at 920 mb, which was regarded as neutral to slightly bullish. On-farm stocks were 177 mb, down 4%, and off-farm stocks were estimated at 744 mb, 11% higher than a year ago. March-to-May disappearance was 383 mb.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The reports overall held few major surprises, except for the wheat acreage number. That number should have had a much more bullish reaction than the dime or less movement that we saw. However, as the U.S. is halfway through the winter wheat harvest and both the EU and Black Sea harvests are ahead with plentiful world wheat supplies, the reaction might be considered mild.
With respect to corn and soybeans, the higher closes following a mostly neutral report were likely more indicative of how oversold each market had become.
Dana Mantini can be reached at dana.mantini@dtn.com
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